In this text, the author outlines his scenaric approach to developing a strategic vision for businesses, drawing on work done for institutions and companies such as the White House, EPA and the International Stock Exchange.
Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. This book provides in depth analysis and application of the concept of the strategic conversation. It offers the tools to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.
Scenario planning has received top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. This guide to scenario planning helps manage the uncertainties of the future and takes a conceptual rather than mathematical approach. It includes case studies, checklists, early indicators, and examples.
In this work, the authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool.
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones.
The combined forces of technological development and economic openness are creating a wide array of new opportunities for busiensses, political institutions and individuals. These changes are considered, as well as alternative scenarios and plans for the future.